behydrogen.ai How EU E-Fuels Rules Could Accelerate Belgium’s Natural Hydrogen Sector ReFuelEURED IIInatural hydrogenBE.Hydrogene-fuels regulation July 26, 2026 • 3 min read As the European Union tightens its grip on aviation and transport fuels through ReFuelEU Aviation and the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), Belgium’s nascent natural hydrogen exploration programme—centred on the Hercynian basement and former coal basins—stands to benefit from a regulatory environment that rewards low-carbon hydrogen sources. The BE.Hydrogen initiative, led by Belspo and the Geological Survey of Belgium under Minister Crucke’s oversight, is now positioned at the intersection of geology and energy policy, where subsurface data could inform hydrogen supply strategies for Europe’s emerging e-fuels market. 2025 ReFuelEU Aviation mandate start year 2% Minimum SAF blend required at EU airports by 2025 70% Minimum synthetic e-fuel share in SAF by 2030 (ReFuelEU) 42.5% RED III renewable energy target by 2030 ReFuelEU and RED III: A New Policy Architecture for Hydrogen ReFuelEU Aviation mandates that from 2025 all fuel suppliers at EU airports must blend at least 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into their jet kerosene, rising to 70% synthetic e-fuel share by 2030. RED III, which sets a binding 42.5% renewable energy target across the Union by 2030, explicitly recognises renewable hydrogen—including Power-to-Liquid e-fuels—as a pathway to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors. Together, these directives create a regulatory pull for low-carbon hydrogen feedstocks, whether produced via electrolysis or sourced from natural reservoirs. Belgium’s BE.Hydrogen programme, tasked with mapping white hydrogen potential in the Walloon coal basins and the deeper Hercynian basement, is now collecting subsurface data that could inform commercial-scale hydrogen production. If natural hydrogen flows prove viable, they would offer a low-cost, low-emission feedstock for e-fuel synthesis—meeting RED III’s renewable criteria without the capex burden of large-scale electrolysers. Geological Data as a Strategic Asset in E-Fuel Supply Chains The Geological Survey of Belgium is deploying seismic and geochemical surveys across the Greater Region to identify hydrogen accumulations in faulted Carboniferous strata. Early indications from legacy mining records and gas-seep analyses suggest measurable hydrogen presence, though commercial flow rates remain unproven. Under ReFuelEU’s accounting framework, hydrogen used in Power-to-Liquid facilities must demonstrate lifecycle emissions below 3.4 gCO₂eq/MJ; naturally occurring hydrogen, if extracted with minimal surface infrastructure, could achieve emissions profiles competitive with or superior to green hydrogen. Minister Crucke has emphasised that Belgium’s energy transition must leverage indigenous resources where possible. Integrating natural hydrogen into the e-fuels value chain would reduce reliance on imported feedstocks and align with RED III’s sub-targets for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs). The BE.Hydrogen drilling campaign, expected to conclude data acquisition by late 2025, will provide the first quantitative resource estimates, informing both policy and investment decisions. AI-Driven Optimisation and the behydrogen.ai Domain Predictive modelling of subsurface hydrogen migration, reservoir pressure regimes, and optimal well placement increasingly relies on machine-learning algorithms that process seismic, petrophysical, and geochemical datasets. The behydrogen.ai domain reflects this intersection of geological science and computational intelligence: AI tools help rank exploration targets, forecast production profiles, and model integration scenarios with downstream e-fuel plants. As ReFuelEU ramps up demand signals and RED III tightens carbon intensity thresholds, data-driven decision-making will separate viable projects from speculative ventures, ensuring that Belgium’s natural hydrogen assets—if confirmed—can be deployed at scale and speed. Bottom Line ReFuelEU Aviation and RED III together create a policy tailwind for low-carbon hydrogen, and Belgium’s BE.Hydrogen programme is uniquely positioned to supply geological hydrogen as feedstock for synthetic e-fuels. With a 2% SAF mandate starting in 2025 and a 42.5% renewable energy target by 2030, the EU’s regulatory architecture rewards early movers who can demonstrate subsurface resource potential backed by rigorous geological data and AI-optimised exploration—validating both the .ai domain and Belgium’s strategic focus on natural hydrogen in the Hercynian basement and Greater Region coal basins. Sources IATA – Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS – WFW & KGAL Webinar What is sustainable aviation fuel and how is it made? | World Economic Forum Featured image via Unsplash. Post navigation How ReFuelEU Aviation Targets Could Reshape Belgian Hydrogen Geology Economics